My comments on Thanksgiving Day games can be found here:  http://cdbaker.wordpress.com/2009/11/27/2009-nfl-season-week-12-thanksgiving-day-special/

GAMES I WATCHED

New Orleans Saints over New England Patriots, 38-17

This was the marquee matchup of the weekend and it didn’t live up to its hype. The Saints spanked the Patriots like an unwanted step child.

The shellacking the Patriots took at the hands of the Saints was a nasty reality check for New England Patriots fans. We must face the fact the Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, and even the Indianapolis Colts, are the elite teams in the league this year. We are a notch below, along with a handful of other teams, peeking our head over the windowsill wondering how we got left out the party.

I’ll dispense with comments on the Saints in this game by simply saying they are a great team. Drew Brees is absolutely phenomenal and had an unbelievable performance. And defensive coordinator Greg Williams had a brilliant game plan and has really turned this defense around. I’ve been utterly impressed with the Saints all year long and suffering through this game left me even more impressed. I expect to see a Saints versus Vikings matchup in the NFC Championship Game. And if it turns out anything like the wild game they had in the regular season last year, it should be wildly entertaining.

Now on to the Patriots and what to make of the fiasco we witnessed on Monday night.

Let’s start with the offensive, the most fixable problem we face the rest of the season and into the playoffs, which we should reach. The offense has become utterly predictable. The Saints simply dropped numerous players in coverage and took away the short passing game and Wes Welker, and mostly blanketed Randy Moss. They were able to get decent pressure on Brady, especially in the second half, with only a four man rush. This was partially because of injuries on our offensive line, which hopefully will get back in shape by seasons’ end. But the Patriots’ offense appears pretty easy to scheme against these days. We abandon the run way too soon and in the second half, like last week against the Jets, it was bombs away with nobody to throw the ball to. We need to at least mix up our plays a bit throughout the game and come up with less predictable or more creative schemes to get receivers open. That’s not to say the offense is bad. We scored 17 points against the Saints and really should have had more but for a few errant throws and interceptions by Brady. But nevertheless, we need to address this. Charlie Weis anyone?

Our defense right now is in a complete rebuilding mode. Most of our starting defensive backs are young players or recent starters and it shows. They have been frequently out of place and burned all year by most teams we’ve faced. We have just gotten by with it, for the most part, because the offense has been putting up enough points to cover for them. The lousy play by the defensive backs was painfully evident on numerous blown coverages against the Saints. They should be embarrassed. I hope they are.

Adding to our woes on defense we cannot get a pass rush or pressure the quarterback. Drew Brees had enough time in the pocket to eat a steak dinner and down a few drinks, much less throw the ball to his outstanding corps of receivers. What happened to Adalius Thomas? He has completely disappeared as a playmaker on this defense.

Overall the defense played like it was on a 0-16 team, not a championship caliber team. Now people don’t need to wonder why Bill Belichick went for it on fourth and two to try to preserve the game against the Colts two weeks ago, after Manning torched the defense for two long drives in no time. A punt might have been giving the game away.

The defense, as noted earlier, is in a rebuilding phase and I suspect it will take some time for it to come around. Unfortunately, it won’t likely be anytime soon, and not in time for a significant playoff run.

MVP: Drew Brees, QB

Philadelphia Eagles over Washington Redskins, 27-24

I will say this about the Redskins, all these new players finding themselves in starting roles are playing very hard and being competitive. Even though the Redskins are losing some close games, at least they don’t look as pathetic as they did earlier in the season. They actually look like they belong in the NFL these days. The oft maligned Jason Campbell played reasonably well other than his two interceptions to Asante Samuel.

This was a game that the Redskins could have won but the Eagles just simply pulled it out at the end. Despite a talented group of receivers, the Eagles seem to greatly miss Brian Westbrook in the lineup. They just aren’t the same. And putting Michael Vick in to run plays seemed mostly counterproductive. It slowed the momentum of the offense.

Hats off to London Fletcher, the Redskins’ middle linebacker. He has been playing All Pro caliber defense all year long, as has Eagles’ defense end Trent Cole.

Finally, while his statistics don’t pop off the page, my MVP goes to Eagles’ wide receiver Jason Avant, whose two big catches in the fourth quarter jumpstarted the offense and the Eagles to their tying touchdown.

MVP: Jason Avant, WR

Minnesota Vikings over Chicago Bears, 36-10

I really felt this game was over before it really started. It turned out pretty much exactly as I expected it to. The Bears defense has not been great this year and the offense, especially Jay Cutler, has been subpar. But really, it’s the Bears offensive line that has been atrocious. I assume that Orlando Pace was sitting on the sideline in the second half because he was benched for poor play. I feel really badly for Pace in some ways. In his prime he was an outstanding left tackle. But injuries and time spent in the NFL getting pounded on every week has clearly made him past his prime. For his sake I hope to see him retire this year. It’s time.

Meanwhile, Cutler threw his obligatory two interceptions during the game and his receivers did nothing to help him. And what happened to Matt Forte?

The Bears are in big, big trouble going forward. They gave up a boatload of draft picks for Jay Cutler and are in such desperate need of help in so many areas that it may be years before we see this team win again, especially if the Cutler we see now is what we can expect in the future.

Brett Favre had another excellent day, and rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin lit up the field with six catches for 101 yards and touchdown.

MVP: Brett Favre, QB

Baltimore Ravens over Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-17 OT

Baltimore eked out a win against the Steelers and finally won a close game. They keep their slim playoff hopes alive. But Ravens fans shouldn’t get too excited. There is no reason that the Ravens should have had to go into overtime when the Steelers were starting a third string quarterback. They continue to play down to the level of their competition.

That’s not to say that second year quarterback Dennis Dixon from the University of Oregon had a bad game. He actually played quite well. While the Steelers obviously altered their game plan a bit for him, he did throw the ball, and mostly well, throughout the game. He also made a few nice plays with his legs. I think he has some potential. I felt sorry for him when he threw and interception in overtime that set up the Ravens for the win, but that’s how it goes.

The Ravens offense struggled a bit with the Steelers defense, but who doesn’t. I would say that Michael Oher and Jarred Gaither had a tough time against the Steelers linebackers, but who doesn’t? For the most part they played really well, but there were stretches of time where I they were getting beat. And if Michael Oher, both last week and this week sure looks like he is moving before the ball is snapped on almost every play, but I guess he’s not since the officials aren’t calling it.

Overall this was a very interesting game given the circumstances. I’m not surprised the Ravens won, I’m just surprised they found it so difficult to do so.

MVP: Ray Rice, RB

ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS

If I did a power ranking, the New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, and Indianapolis Colts would be the top three teams, in that order. There are several teams just below them.

Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Vince Young had outstanding performances. Vince Young? He’s won five straight games as the starter for the Titans and has looked really good doing it. I wonder if he is going to make me eat my words that he will never be a good starting quarterback in the NFL?

I don’t recall the last highly touted wide receiver out of Florida that wasn’t a bust in the NFL. I’m sure someone will tell me who it is. But Percy Harvin is certainly breaking that streak.

PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Offensive Player: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Defensive Player: Charles Woodson, CB, Green Bay Packers

Offensive Lineman: Ryan Clady, T, Denver Broncos

Special Teams: LaRod Stephens-Howling, KR, Arizona Cardinals

Rookie of the Week: Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings

INTRODUCTION

After the New York Giants went 5-0 many pundits had them ranked as the best team in the NFL in their power rankings. I said then that they were at best a mediocre team. I may not always be right, but I was right about that.

The traditional football games on Thanksgiving Day featured two matchups that really were not that compelling to the average football fan. The still lowly Detroit Lions hosted the solid but struggling Green Bay Packers, while the Dallas Cowboys hosted the usually pathetic Oakland Raiders. Most thought the games would be blowouts and they certainly lived up to the tripe. Green Bay had no trouble rolling over Detroit, and Oakland proved to be no match for Dallas.

Many have wondered if the Detroit Lions should no longer be hosting a nationally televised game on Thanksgiving given their long standing lack of quality teams. A Thanksgiving Day matchup should be a marquee game between two quality teams, right?

I disagree though. The Detroit Lions have been hosting a Thanksgiving Day game since 1934. That’s 75 years of tradition for the Lions, sometimes a good team, lately not, hosting a game on this holiday. The National Football League is built on tradition and after 75 years I don’t see a reason to break that tradition now. Despite not being a great team now, presumably the Lions will be relevant again. And for me, watching any professional football game is enjoyable. And I always know I’ll see the Lions host somebody on this day and I look forward to it every year.

GAMES I WATCHED

Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions, 34-12

As expected this game was not even close. After Green Bay fumbled the opening kickoff leading to a quick Detroit touchdown, the game was basically over. Detroit’s offense never did much else, while Matthew Stafford threw four picks.

Green Bay played an all around solid game, with Donald Driver catching seven passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. This included a 68 yard grab in the first quarter to set up Green Bay’s first touchdown. Cornerback Charles Woodson had his second sterling game with two interceptions, one that he returned for a touchdown in garbage time.

I’m not sure why the Lions started rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford who played with a separated left shoulder. I think he has the potential to be the franchise quarterback for the Lions and it just doesn’t seem worth risking further damage to his shoulder at this point in the season.

This game turned out pretty much as expected. It was a good game for Green Bay to get back to winning and try to jumpstart an attempt to make the playoffs as Wild Card team. They have a long way to go for that.

MVP: Donald Driver, WR

Dallas Cowboys over Oakland Raiders, 24-7

The NFC East used to be considered the toughest conference in the NFL. Not anymore. Right now the storied franchise of the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Philadelphia Eagles are middle of the road teams, at best. The Washington Redskins are abysmal and shouldn’t even be in the conversation.

The race for the NFC East is going down the stretch and Dallas needs to keep winning with the Giants and Eagles right in the mix. Pundits have even taken to calling Tony Romo not just an average quarterback, but a bad one. And he deserves it given the way he has played this year.

In this game Dallas had no trouble putting the Raiders away. Romo had a very good outing and wide receiver Miles Austin was again fantastic. He had seven catches for 145 yards and touchdown to lead the Dallas Cowboys offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Raiders started fourth year quarterback Bruce Gradkowski over the bust of a number one overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell. Gradkowski, frankly, is never going to be a particularly good NFL quarterback, but he is gutsy and had didn’t play that badly against the Cowboys. The Raiders were just simply overmatched talent wise on the field.

Dallas, like Green Bay, really needed an easy win and to get their offense rolling after a very pedestrian performance against the Redskins last week, a game they should have lost but didn’t.

MVP: Miles Austin, WR

Denver Broncos over New York Giants, 26-6

This was the marquee matchup of the day which most thought we be a closely contested ball game. Both teams have been struggling a great deal the past month, with the Broncos losing four straight games and the Giants losing the last five out of six. Too bad it was on the NFL Network. Many football fans, as a result, didn’t have access to the game. Well, it was an interesting game but not much was missed.

I actually thought the Giants would win this game but they never bothered to show up. They were pathetic.

The Giants, on their second offensive snap of the game, had to call a timeout to avoid a delay of game penalty. They followed this up with a minus two yard run by Brandon Jacobs. That basically set the tone for the game as the Giants offense seemed to have stayed in New York.

I watched Brandon Jacobs very closely in this game because he has been struggling of late. What I noticed was disturbing. Even when he got into a good hole he didn’t have the same burst of speed and power to make a good gain like he has in the past. I don’t know if it’s because he has been injured a bit or some other ailment, but he definitely is not the same runner he has been in the past. There were holes that he got to that a Chris Johnson or an Adrian Peterson, or last years Brandon Jacobs for that matter, would have turned into a long gain. Something is missing or gone awry there.

Meanwhile a lot has been said of the struggles of the Giants offensive line. They played reasonably well at all times, more so on running plays. The announcers kept saying they were getting beat physically but they most looked confused by the Broncos tricky defensive alignments than physically dominated.

But the Broncos defense played extremely well. Elvis Dumervil had two sacks and a forced fumble, safety Brian Dawkins was a menace all over the field, and the Denver secondary, led by Champ Bailey, blanketed the Giants’ receivers. In fact the quarterback pressures could often be attributed to superior defensive back play more so than the defensive line dominating the line of scrimmage. But it was a very well played game by the Denver defense all around.

The Giants defense didn’t play terribly but again, they weren’t beaten physically as much as the Broncos just outplayed them. Case in point, if you watched Giants’ defense end Osi Umenyiora against the Bronco’s left tackle, Ryan Clady, he often got good penetration and sometimes pressure on Kyle Orton. But he was completely shut out of the game.

Meanwhile Denver’s rookie running back Knowshon Moreno played very well with a shifty, slithery style of running that netted yards when most backs would have been shut down. I have seen Denver play several times this year and I have not seen these moves by Moreno before. Maybe it’s because I wasn’t watching him at his best or that he has been injured, but now I see why people are so excited about this guy. He has a unique running style that avoids big contact and can make the most out of small openings. And of course wide receiver Brandon Marshall was making some sick one handed catches.

But frankly, at the end of the day I am not sure whether Denver looked so good because the Giants were just plain awful, or if they have come out of their funk. They certainly looked much better than they have the past few times I’ve seen them. I do know one thing, however, the Giants appear to be on the way down an out. See ya!

The MVP could really go to Dumervil, Dawkins, or Bailey. I am going with Champ Bailey because I thought it was the Denver pass coverage that was the key to their success on defense.

MVP: Champ Bailey, CB

OBSERVATIONS

The theme of this week was clearly upsets, with the biggest being the Oakland Raiders knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs knocking off the Pittsburgh Steelers. Just missed upsets were Washington versus Dallas (go figure, Washington is a lousy offensive team) and the Ravens versus the Colts, as the Ravens just shot themselves in the foot, three times.

Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans has taken over Adrian Peterson’s spot as my top running back in the league and gets serious consideration for league MVP. Without his unbelievable running talent, the Titans are still winless.

Matthew Stafford coming into the game after separating his shoulder and throwing the winning touchdown pass was one of the gutsiest things I have seen in a long time. Wow.

If I were doing an NFL Power Ranking my top team very well may be the Minnesota Vikings, even though the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts are undefeated. The Vikings have a much better defense than either of those two teams and an almost equally potent offense.

Denver continues to fold.

GAMES I WATCHED

New England Patriots over New York Jets, 31-14

This was an extremely important win for the Patriots given we lost last week to the Colts and face the undefeated New Orleans Saints next Monday night. And it certainly helps our chances for a second seed in the playoffs with the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers both losing this week.

Clearly the Patriots are a better team now than they were when they faced the Jets the second week of the season. The first half featured more running and short screens to slow down the blitz, and the offensive line played much better than the last time these teams met.

The Jets, frankly, don’t seem as good as they were earlier in the season. Mark Sanchez is a now playing like the rookie he is, looking confused and befuddled at times. Don’t get that comment wrong, however. I think he will be a solid NFL quarterback with experience. Even Joe Flacco (Ravens) and Matt Ryan (Falcons) who set somewhat of a standard last year for rookie quarterbacks are struggling a bit in their second season. But the Patriots are on the rise and the Jets are falling off the map.

The Patriots dominated this game from start to finish. Other than a blocked punt that netted the Jets an easy touchdown, the Patriots had the Jets’ number all day long. The offense seemed to go into a bombs away mode in the second half and got away from running the ball and the short passing game, which resulted in having a tougher time with the blitz and our offense didn’t do much in second half. But neither did the Jets.

Patriots’ cornerback Leigh Bodden came away with three interceptions, one which he returned for the first touchdown of the game. But Wes Welker had a monster game with 15 catches for 192 yards.

The Patriots better stick with the run and short passing game longer next week against the New Orleans Saints if they hope to win.

MVP: Wes Welker, WR

Miami Dolphins over Carolina Panthers, 24-17

Even without Ronnie Brown running the Wildcat offense I thought the Dolphins could beat the inconsistent Panthers with their solid running game. While they didn’t run the Wildcat nearly as often, they did hand the ball off to Rickey Williams who stepped up with 119 yards rushing and two touchdowns, which included a nifty 46 yard scoring run to put the game away in the fourth quarter.

Both of these teams played decent games but Carolina is a team that befuddles me. They have great running backs, a top flight receiver in Steve Smith, and a rather solid defense, mostly. But they are a mediocre to poor team at best. Oh yeah, they also have Jake Delhomme at quarterback, so never mind. It all makes sense now.

For Miami they are going to be in a real struggle to make the playoffs. It’s late in the season so maybe Ricky Williams can handle the extra workload, but he does not run the Wildcat a well as Ronnie Brown and they have a very pedestrian, non-threatening passing game. Most teams should just stack up against the run and they should be able to mostly hold the Dolphins down. But you have to give Miami credit for playing hard and making their offense work this week. Let’s see if they can keep it up.

MVP: Rickey Williams, RB

Indianapolis Colts over Baltimore Ravens, 17-15

What is wrong with the Baltimore Ravens? They have a very good football team but just cannot close the show. They had three excellent opportunities to win this game, but blew all three of them. Really, the Ravens should be sick about this loss. They could have easily won this game.

They did get rid of their lousy kicker who kept missing easy field goals. Their new kicker Billy Cundiff made some of the field goals he hit a bit heart stopping, but missed one wildly. But his miss appeared to be the fault of the snapper or holder because the ball was clearly held at an odd angle. Missed field goal, lose by two points. Bang!

In the fourth quarter the Ravens had the ball first and goal from the one yard line and could not score a touchdown and had to settle for a field goal. Fourth and one from the one, with an excellent offensive line and three outstanding running backs, against a defense that does not play that well against the run, and you can’t get the touchdown???? Another blown chance to get some points and win the game. BANG BANG!

And then Flacco, again in the fourth quarter, when the Ravens were near field goal range and could have won the game, throws a stupid interception. BANG BANG BANG!

Finally, with 28 seconds left and a Colts punt, the wickedly talented Ed Reed idiotically tries to lateral the ball near midfield and fumbles. Game over. Even with no time outs and 28 seconds left, the offense had a slight chance to get a few plays off and possibly kick a game winning field goal.

The Colts are a good team, obviously, at 10-0, but they escaped once again by the skin of their teeth and the Ravens let another winnable game pass them by. The Ravens are still in the playoff hunt at 5-5 but they should be better.

A final note, where did Tom Santi the tight end for the Colts come from? The second year player from Virginia saw his first action and the poor fellow made the biggest plays in the first half but took a beating for it. Even though he fumbled once, he was jacked up by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed at the same time!! Welcome to the NFL [expletives deleted]! I’ll give him a pass on that one and give him my MVP award.

MVP: Tom Santi, TE

Philadelphia Eagles over Chicago Bears, 24-20

The Eagles had a nicely balanced attack against the Bears, with rookie LeSean McCoy picking up 99 rushing yards, and DeSean Jackson racking up 107 yards receiving, including a 48 yard touchdown. What is up with all these XxSeans? With Dallas and the Giants joining the Eagles in mediocrity, the Eagles are in good position to once again steal the NFC East crown.

Meanwhile Jay Cutler looks just flat out awful. I really don’t like Cutler after all the bad mouthing he did in Denver and his generally sulky attitude. But frankly, I am starting to feel a little sorry for him. His mechanics are just atrocious. He constantly throws off his back foot and really is just arming the ball down the field without stepping into his throws. As a result he is very inaccurate, especially on the deep passes. Plus, he is skittish in the pocket and makes poor decisions. Right now he is a poor, not average, but poor quarterback. And his body language doesn’t look good at all.

The Bears better get Jay Cutler straightened out or they are in for not only a long season but possibly a long period of losing football.

MVP: DeSean Jackson, WR

Tennessee Titans over Houston Texans, 20-17

The Tennessee Titans do not look like the same football team that laid down against the New England Patriots. They have won four straight on the legs of Chris Johnson and with Vince Young leading them at quarterback.

In addition to Chris Johnson running the ball extremely well, I love what the coaching staff is doing with Vince Young. They are calling plays and letting him play to his strength. It has already been much discussed that Young is not a great pocket passer. In this game they rolled him out often and let him make plays with both his arm and his legs. They really are playing to his strengths. While I still don’t think Young will ever be a great NFL quarterback, with a solid running game and the receivers finally stepping up and making plays, Young can be very effective the way the Titans are running their offense. And that extra dimension of Young making big plays running makes the Titans offense that much more dangerous. With four straight wins, this team has new life.

On the flip side, and I know I’ve said this a hundred times about every team that is talented but not playing up to the level of their talent, I don’t know what to make the of the Houston Texans. Solid quarterback, decent running backs, great reciever, a lot of talent on defense, but they just can’t seem to a get everything together to string together some wins.

Finally, I know Chris Johson is the MVP of this team and he ran a league high 151 yards against the Texans. But I am giving my MVP award to Rob Bironas. He hit a 50 yard field goal and a game winning 53 yard field goal, while Texan kicker Kris Brown missed his chance. I have seen too many games where the kicker has missed makeable field goals that cost their team the game. Bironas came through with two very tough, long kicks to win the game.

MVP: Rob Bironas, K

PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Offensive Player: Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots

Defensive Player: Leigh Bodden, CB, New England Patriots

Offensive Lineman: Jared Gaither, T, Baltimore Ravens

Special Teams: Rob Bironas, K, Tennessee Titans

Rookie of the Week: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

OBSERVATIONS

I turned on the NFL Channel when I got home from work and they were getting ready to show New England’s 35-34 loss to the Indianapolis Colts as an “instant classic.” I wanted to puke. Does that mean I am going to be subjected to highlights of this game the rest of the season, and possibly in perpetuity, like I am Super Bowl XLII highlights?

So the NFL wants to extend the regular season to 18 games? Just off the top of my head I can name several marquee players this week that were injured: Cedric Benson, Brian Westbrook, Troy Polamalu, Kyle Orton, Terrell Suggs, Joshua Cribbs, Michael Turner, and Ronnie Brown. I may be forgetting a few, but you get the picture.

Last week I said was that a crash I was hearing, the Denver Broncos coming down to earth? This week I really did hear a crash as they lost to the Washington Redskins. Granted Washington probably played its best game of the season, but Denver has lost three in a row. Meanwhile San Diego is on the rise. Their game this weekend will be an important one for both teams.

While Denver is looking like pretenders, the Cincinnati Bengals look like contenders. They have swept Pittsburgh and control the AFC North.

Speaking of Cincinnati, doesn’t it just figure they would sign Larry Johnson? He fits right in.

Finally, what is up with the Dallas Cowboys? The entire NFC East is a mess. They were horrible against the Packers.

And Aaron Rodgers, who I like a lot, needs to get rid of the ball faster. He is taking a beating but against the Cowboys he could have avoided some of the hits.

Brady Quinn looks like a bust. Alex Smith already was one.

Finally I am crushed that Ronnie Brown is out for the season with a foot injury. I don’t like the Dolphins and would just as soon see them go 0-16 but I love great football players and what Brown was doing this year running the Wildcat formation was phenomenal. Now the AFC East has lost two great running backs in Leon Washington and Ronnie Brown, both who I have a great deal of admiration for. No, I’m not like the Jets fans who cheered over Brady’s injury last year and crowed that they were the new team in the AFC East. I have more class than that.

GAMES I WATCHED

Indianapolis Colts over New England Patriots, 35-34

I wrote my comments on this already, you can see it here:  http://cdbaker.wordpress.com/2009/11/17/bill-belichick-is-afraid-of-peyton-manning/

The synopsis, the Patriots have a lot of positives to take away from the game. They basically gave the game away, and I’m not just talking about Bill Belichick’s no infamous call on 4^th and 2 from their own 28 at the end of the game. I just hope they can rebound and beat the New York Jets this weekend. I don’t want to go into a tailspin. I think they will beat the Jets, and can beat the Saints.

Indianapolis at 9-0 and a relatively easy schedule could run the table and go 16-0. But I don’t think they will.

MVP: Reggie Wayne, WR

San Francisco 49′ers over Chicago Bears, 10-6

Oh my, two bottom feeders rolling around in the muck. Jay Cutler looked awful with five interceptions. Granted some of them were partially the fault of his receivers but this was really a joke. Cutler, the big bad, I am going to be the leader of the team, I’m the next coming of John Elway, I am going to have input into the 53 man roster. I love seeing this whiny brat, wannabe John Elway get his comeuppance. He looks awful, his team looks awful, and the Bears got what they paid for.

San Francisco’s offensive didn’t look much better. Four interceptions (not counting the one late in the game) and you only score 10 points? Even a mediocre offense would have blow the Bears out of this game and made it a laugher. I’m sorry but Alex Smith just does not look like the quarterback of the future to me. The quarterback position on this team needs to be addressed.

What the 49′ers do have is heart, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, and a solid defense. I think Mike Singletary is taking this team in the right direction.

MVP: Frank Gore, RB

Cincinnati Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers, 18-12

The Cincinnati Bengals have swept the Pittsburgh Steelers and have proven to be a real contender in the AFC. Their defense continues to play extremely well and I am very, very impressed with their offensive line. They have one of the best offensive lines in the league. And while the offensive did not score a lot of points, they did enough to win and they basically controlled this game for the most part.

Pittsburgh is a great team as well but they certainly are not the same team without Troy Polamalu in the lineup. While Pittsburgh is on my list of teams I least want to see win, I hope Polamalu recovers. I love watching this guy play.

Rookie running back and kick returner Bernard Scott had a superman game, running a kickoff for a touchdown and filling in for the injured Cedric Benson.

MVP: Bernard Scott, RB/KR

Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys, 17-7

Dallas is a hard to team to figure out, as is Tony Romo. Sometimes they look like an upper echelon team and sometimes they look like the Cleveland Browns in a different uniform. This week they were atrocious and so was Tony Romo. A lot of that can be laid at the feet of an offensive line that looked overmatched by the Green Bay Packers.

Charles Woodson, Green Bay’s veteran cornerback had a career day with two forced fumbles, a sack, and an interception. He was all over the field. It helped that the Packers defensive line was able to get penetration into the Dallas backfield. A shout out should go to Packer defensive tackle Johnny Jolly who disrupted numerous plays.

Dallas lost their left tackle Mark Colombo during the game, which is scary given that they are weak at the tackle position. Flozell Adams is a joke. And that was part of Dallas’ problem.

Meanwhile I thought Green Bay’s offensive line played better than they usually do, but Rodgers was not helping them much by holding onto the ball too long and taking hits. He needs to get out of that habit, fast.

I love seeing Dallas lose so this was a fun game to watch.

MVP: Charles Woodson, CB

Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns, 16-0

Cleveland looked pathetic and inept in this game. Eric Mangenius sure made this team look better this year, didn’t he? That was one of the worst displays of professional football I have seen since, well, the Tennessee Titans laid down against the Patriots earlier this year.

Brady Quinn is really starting to look like a bust. He played horribly, as did his receivers, and the entire offense.

But Baltimore had no business looking as awful as they did either. The score was 0-0 at halftime. Baltimore, despite having three good running backs, even and excellent one in Ray Rice, had no business looking this bad and out of sync. They played down to the level of competition.

As one of the announcers said, the best unit on this night was the Browns defensive line. The dominated the action. I feel back for not giving Shaun Rodgers a shout out on my Midseason Pro Bowl team. When he gets it going he is almost unblockable.

This game was badly marred by Brady Quinn’s low block on Terrell Suggs that will knock him out of action for an undetermined amount of time. And then Joshua Cribbs got jacked up and hospitalized on the last play of the game that certainly looked like a cheap shot by Suggs’ backup, Dwan Edwards.

Both teams say the cheap shots weren’t intentional. I guess I will take their word for it.

This was a forgettable game, otherwise.

MVP: Ray Rice, RB

PLAYERS OF THE GAME

Offensive Player: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (232 total yards rushing and receiving)

Defensive Player: Charles Woodson, CB, Green Bay Packers

Offensive Lineman: Sebastian Vollmer, T, New England Patriots

Special Teams: Bernard Scott, KR/RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Rookie of the Week: Bernard Scott, KR/RB, Cincinnati

The New England Patriot’s 35-34 loss to the Indianapolis Colts Sunday night was one of the most frustrating, infuriating, painful losses I can remember for a regular season game in a long, long time. I know I more or less said something similar after last year’s loss to the Colts, but this is worse because we squandered a mostly wonderful game by Tom Brady and the offense.

Frankly, I am still so sick about losing this game I’m not really sure where to start in trying to discuss it. It really all came down to one play and one coaching decision at the end of the game. But before getting into what will go down as one of most infamous coaching decisions in NFL regular season history, let’s look at the positives for the Patriots. That might make me feel a little better, but I doubt it.

First, Tom Brady had an outstanding game. He actually outplayed Peyton Manning and is really starting to look like the Tom Brady of 2007. His pass to Kevin Faulk on the 4th and 2 at the end of the game was perfect and should have resulted in a first down (and some would argue it did, the officials just didn’t see it that way). Randy Moss and Wes Welker had outstanding games as well.

Second, the offensive line did an excellent job of protecting Brady most of the night. Sebastian Vollmer, the backup rookie left tackle, did a very good job of controlling the pass rushing machine, Dwight Freeney, most of the night. Nick Kazur, the right tackle, struggled a bit with Robert Mathis but he played well enough for the most part. A fellow Patriot fan suggested that maybe Matt Light, or normal left tackle who usually struggles mightily against Freeney, starts at right tackle when he is healthy and Kazur rides the pine. That doesn’t sound like a bad idea.

Finally, the young, inexperienced defense didn’t play as poorly as the score might look. While they didn’t look like the ‘85 Bears, they were able to stop the Colts often enough for us to win the game and forced a couple of turnovers. They played well enough to win, but didn’t.

For the most part this game went the way I expected it to if the Patriots were going to pull off a win – the offense scoring a lot of points and the defense doing just enough to hold off the Colts’ prolific offense. The Patriots had a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter but I knew it wasn’t over. I was nervous, and had every reason to be as it turned out.

This is a game the Patriots had no business losing and it mostly comes down to Bill Belichick squandering all our time outs and his decision to go for it on 4th down and 2 yards to go from our own 28 yard line while protecting a 34-28 lead with 2:08 left in the fourth quarter. This was an all in gamble by Belichick. Make the first down and the game is basically over as the Patriots could have taken nearly all the time off the clock. Don’t make the first down and you give Peyton Manning, one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, the ball at the New England 28 yard line with plenty of time left on the clock.

As most NFL fans know by now, the Patriots didn’t make the first down (or so the officials say) and Manning threw a winning touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne with almost no time left on the clock. Game over.

And one other thing to note before discussing Belichick’s gamble on 4^th down, the Laurence Maroney fumble in the end zone also was a game deciding play. Instead of scorning a touchdown we gave the ball back to the Colts on the 20 yard line. While the Colts went three and out and we did score a touchdown on our next possession, it still costs us seven points and possibly the game. Had he scored and the Colts went three and out, we would have ended up with decent field position and likely a field goal or even another touchdown, putting the game out of reach. Turnovers kill and that was a killer. Couple that with the squandered time outs and the fourth quarter was an absolute disaster for the Patriots.

Bill Belichck’s 4^th Down Gamble

What to make of Belichick’s decision to go for it on fourth down deep in our own territory when he could have punted the ball and made Manning and the Colts march 70 yards for a winning touchdown? (Note most football pundits agree that the most likely result of a Patriots punt would have been the Colts with the ball at around their own 30 yard line). I have seen two schools of thought on this.

Belichick is an Idiot and Didn’t Give His Team a Chance to Win

Most analysts basically called it a “blunder.” The usually politic Tony Dungy more or less called it “stupid.” Most others are also saying that Belichick’s decision showed arrogance, a lack of respect for the defense, and it was simply a really, really bad coaching decision.

Arrogance is the funniest and silliest adjective to describe Belichick’s decision. Arrogance? Do you believe it is arrogant that the coach wanted to put the game in the hands of his offense and Tom Brady instead of the hands of Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne? Instead of arrogance it showed respect, or even fear, of Peyton Manning.

I am also sick of hearing that Belichick had no confidence in his defense. I don’t think that is the case at all. The defense is young, the Patriots have numerous injuries on their defensive line meaning defenders were playing more snaps, they lost their best pass rusher early in the game, Tully Banta-Cain, they were tired, and the Colts clearly had the momentum on offense. Two consecutive nearly 80 yard drives, and quick ones at that, certainly factored into the decision.

It’s not that Belichick had no confidence in his defense.

He is scared of Peyton Manning. Belichick’s calculation was that Peyton Manning was more likely to score a touchdown, regardless of where he got the ball on the field than the chances were of not making the first down on 4^th and 2. Again, not because he has no confidence in the defense, but he’s afraid of Peyton Manning. Which leads me to the second school of thought.

Belichick is a Genius and it Just Didn’t Work Out

Maybe Belichick is right. Had the Patriots punted the Colts very well may have taken the ball 70 or so yards and scored a winning touchdown. This Web site argues that Belichick made the right decision to go for it on 4^th down based on statistics of NFL teams http://tinyurl.com/yzszwzp. The basic argument is given the probability of making it on 4^th down versus the probability that the Colts would score a winning touchdown if the Patriots punted the ball, Belichick made the right decision and gave his team the best chance to win. And the greater the probability you think Manning would drive the Colts for the winning score, the more the decision to go for it on 4^th down makes sense.

I thought when we did not get a first down on third down that the Colts would probably win because we would punt the ball and eat a Manning touchdown in the face. But I also thought our defense could summon up one more stand against the Colts. But wait! There is no Ty Law, Asante Samuel, Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison, Willie McGinnest. We have rookie defensive backs and newcomers learning the system. Let me rethink that.

So Doug, What Do You Think About the Call?

My first and immediate reaction can be summed up better by one of my fellow Patriots fans. Here I quote one of them after the game:

…I don’t know what the odds are that he makes that play on fourth down…? But let’s say it’s 50-50 or let’s even say he would make it two out of three times…I understand Bill’s concern about kicking and giving the ball back to Peyton with 2:00 left on the clock…the problem I have with the call is that it seems like he gambled the whole game on that one play. He’s the genius, but I don’t get it…if he gambles and they make the play, Patriots win, game over, I get that, but it’s all based on a huge all-in gamble. If they kick it, at least Peyton has to go the length of the field, or most of the length. Obviously, it’s Peyton Manning, and there is a decent chance he marches down and wins the game anyway, but at least you have several chances to stop them. By risking the fourth down where they were on the field, you know that if you don’t make the play, game over, there is essentially a 100 percent chance that we lose by giving one of the greatest QBs of all time the ball back on a short field. It was gambling pure and simple to me. I wish we had taken our chances with our defense. Easy to say in hindsight, but that’s how I feel.

I was very emotional and upset with Belichick for going for it after the game. After further reflection, intellectually, I think he made the right call. I am convinced by the statistics and probabilities that Bill Belichick, by going for it on 4^th down and 2 from their own 28 yard line, gave my team their best chance to win the game. I see the math and I’ve seen Peyton Manning win games like this against better defenses on more than one occasion. If we had made the first down we wouldn’t even be talking about it.

And while I have not read the study on 4^th down conversions that argues that coaches should be much more aggressive in going for it, I am aware of it, and Bill Belichick has studied it (see David Halberstam’s biography of Bill Belichick). He’s made this decision before and been rewarded for it far more often than not, just not on such a big stage.

So the bottom line is I think Belichick made the right call.

But the emotional part of me thinks he should have punted the ball. At least then you could say he gave his defense a chance to win the game. Had the Patriots punted the ball and the Colts drove for the winning score I would find it much easier to swallow than for Belichick to give the game away on a fourth down gamble. And while the defense was very tired and the Colts did have the momentum, the defense had shown they could stop the Colts. Why not give them the chance to try to do it?

But Bill Belichick is smarter than to let emotions rule his on field decisions. He made the right call. It just didn’t work out.